Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 37.86%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 33.7% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.86%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (11.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fenix in this match.