Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 54.64%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Rampla Juniors had a probability of 20.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.81%) and 1-2 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.75%), while for a Rampla Juniors win it was 1-0 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.