Penarol
Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 4
Mar 9, 2024 at 10.30pm UK
Estadio Campeon del Siglo

Penarol
3 - 0
Cerro

Silvera (3'), Fernandez (81', 90' pen.)
Cabrera (23'), Rodriguez (30')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Gonzalez (23'), Rabunal (37'), Llana (54'), Abero (69')
Pallas (33'), Gonzalez (78')
Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Penarol and Cerro.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penarol

All competitions
Last Game: Rampla 0-3 Penarol
Sunday, March 3 at 11pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Cerro

All competitions
Last Game: Cerro 2-3 Progreso
Friday, March 1 at 8pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.96%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 20.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (8.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.41%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.

Result
PenarolDrawCerro
50.96% (0.080999999999996 0.08)28.88%20.16% (-0.084 -0.08)
Both teams to score 36.85% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
32.57% (-0.065999999999995 -0.07)67.43% (0.064000000000007 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
14.45% (-0.044 -0.04)85.55% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.86% (0.007000000000005 0.01)27.14% (-0.0089999999999968 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.46% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)62.53% (-0.012 -0.01)
Cerro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.57% (-0.13500000000001 -0.14)49.43% (0.133 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.74% (-0.095000000000001 -0.1)84.26% (0.093999999999994 0.09)
Score Analysis
    Penarol 50.94%
    Cerro 20.16%
    Draw 28.87%
PenarolDrawCerro
1-0 @ 17.49% (0.049999999999997 0.05)
2-0 @ 11.4% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 8.04% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.96% (0.015 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.5% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-0 @ 1.62% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-2 @ 1.23% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.14% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 1.57%
Total : 50.94%
0-0 @ 13.41% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
1-1 @ 12.32% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 2.83% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 28.87%
0-1 @ 9.45% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-2 @ 4.34% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 3.33% (-0.017 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.02% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 20.16%

Head to Head
Aug 19, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 1
Cerro
1-1
Penarol
Nandin (13')
Cabrera (49'), Garcia (57'), Evar Gomez Silveira (59')
Hernandez (52')
Cristoforo (27'), Hernandez (77')
Feb 4, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 1
Penarol
2-0
Cerro
Arezo (19'), Sanchez (56' pen.)
Jan 16, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 1
Cerro
1-1
Penarol
Cabrera (60' pen.)
Gonzalez (44'), Tancredi (64')
Urreta (22')
Urreta (35'), Herrera (41'), Formiliano (76')
Dawson (57')
Feb 15, 2020 9pm
Gameweek 1
Penarol
2-1
Cerro
Xisco (10'), Trindade (90')
Gonzalez (22'), Abascal (51'), Xisco (61')
Cardozo (71')
Paiva (29')
Moreira (51'), Brasil (74')
Nov 6, 2019 7pm
Cerro
1-3
Penarol
Roldan (83')
Diaz (16'), Izquierdo (87')
Xisco (23', 60'), Rebollo (80')
Xisco (16'), Trindade (45')
rhs 2.0


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