Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 40.14%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 31.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (11.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.