Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 39.25%. A win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.13%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 (10.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.