Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 32.91% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.11%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo City Torque would win this match.