Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 38.61%. A win for La Luz had a probability of 33.39% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest La Luz win was 0-1 (10.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Montevideo City Torque in this match.