Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 38.15%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.63%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (11.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.