Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 29.74% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 0-1 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.