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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 85.06%. A draw had a probability of 10.4% and a win for FC Twente had a probability of 4.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.52%) and 4-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.93%), while for a FC Twente win it was 0-1 (1.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | FC Twente |
| 85.06% | 10.38% | 4.57% |
| Both teams to score 41.91% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.01% | 31% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.91% | 5.09% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 79.75% | 20.26% |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.16% | 55.85% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.62% | 88.38% |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | FC Twente |
| 2-0 @ 12.61% 3-0 @ 12.52% 4-0 @ 9.33% 1-0 @ 8.47% 2-1 @ 7.35% 3-1 @ 7.3% 5-0 @ 5.56% 4-1 @ 5.43% 5-1 @ 3.24% 6-0 @ 2.76% 3-2 @ 2.13% 6-1 @ 1.61% 4-2 @ 1.58% 7-0 @ 1.17% 5-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 3.06% Total : 85.05% | 1-1 @ 4.93% 0-0 @ 2.84% 2-2 @ 2.14% Other @ 0.46% Total : 10.38% | 0-1 @ 1.66% 1-2 @ 1.44% Other @ 1.48% Total : 4.57% |