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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 95.83%. A draw had a probability of 3.2% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 0.97%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 4-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.04%) and 5-0 (11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (1.5%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (0.34%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
95.83% | 3.2% | 0.97% |
Both teams to score 35.92% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
86.59% | 13.41% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
71.83% | 28.16% |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
98.83% | 1.17% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
93.6% | 6.4% |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
36.34% | 63.65% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
7.59% | 92.41% |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
4-0 @ 12.32% 3-0 @ 11.04% 5-0 @ 11% 6-0 @ 8.19% 2-0 @ 7.43% 4-1 @ 5.57% 7-0 @ 5.22% 3-1 @ 4.99% 5-1 @ 4.97% 6-1 @ 3.7% 2-1 @ 3.35% 1-0 @ 3.33% 8-0 @ 2.91% 7-1 @ 2.36% 9-0 @ 1.45% 8-1 @ 1.32% 4-2 @ 1.26% 3-2 @ 1.13% 5-2 @ 1.12% Other @ 3.15% Total : 95.8% | 1-1 @ 1.5% Other @ 1.7% Total : 3.2% | Other @ 0.97% Total : 0.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 30 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 95 | 17 | 78 | 81 |
2 | Feyenoord | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 77 | 23 | 54 | 72 |
3 | FC Twente | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 56 | 30 | 26 | 60 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 59 | 35 | 24 | 55 |
5 | Ajax | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 48 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 59 | 44 | 15 | 47 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 45 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 42 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 40 |
10 | Heerenveen | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 36 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 35 |
12 | Almere CityAlmere City | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 33 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 58 | -18 | 32 |
14 | Heracles | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 32 |
15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 44 | 64 | -20 | 25 |
16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 50 | -21 | 24 |
17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 22 | 68 | -46 | -1 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |