Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Dec 7, 2021 at 8pm UK

Amsterdam Arena

Ajax
4 - 2
Sporting Lisbon

Haller (8' pen.), Antony (42'), Neres (58'), Berghuis (62')
Schuurs (44'), Alvarez (54')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Santos (22'), Tabata (78')
Braganca (7'), Tabata (35')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Ajax and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 47.37%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 33.54% and a draw had a probability of 19.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 6.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-2 (5.72%) and 3-1 (5.53%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (5.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
47.37%	19.09%	33.54%

Both teams to score 79.88%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

82.91%

17.09%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

66.18%

33.82%

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.4%

8.6%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.29%

29.71%

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.4%

12.6%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.3%

38.7%

Score Analysis

Ajax 47.37%

Sporting Lisbon 33.54%

Draw 19.09%

Ajax	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
2-1 @ 6.76% 3-2 @ 5.72% 3-1 @ 5.53% 4-2 @ 3.51% 4-1 @ 3.39% 2-0 @ 3.26% 3-0 @ 2.67% 1-0 @ 2.66% 4-3 @ 2.42% 5-2 @ 1.72% 5-1 @ 1.66% 4-0 @ 1.64% 5-3 @ 1.19% Other @ 5.25% Total : 47.37%	2-2 @ 7% 1-1 @ 5.51% 3-3 @ 3.95% 4-4 @ 1.26% 0-0 @ 1.08% Other @ 0.3% Total : 19.09%	1-2 @ 5.71% 2-3 @ 4.83% 1-3 @ 3.94% 2-4 @ 2.5% 0-2 @ 2.33% 0-1 @ 2.25% 3-4 @ 2.05% 1-4 @ 2.04% 0-3 @ 1.61% 2-5 @ 1.04% Other @ 5.26% Total : 33.54%

How you voted: Ajax vs Sporting Lisbon

Ajax

69.4%

Draw

14.9%

Sporting Lisbon

15.7%