Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Sep 28, 2021 at 8pm UK

Signal Iduna Park

Dortmund
1 - 0
Sporting Lisbon

Malen (37')
Bellingham (42'), Hummels (59')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Nunes (42'), Neto (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Borussia Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 42.5%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 36.7% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.25%) and 3-2 (4.99%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
42.5%	20.8%	36.7%

Both teams to score 74.08%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

75.42%

24.57%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

55.64%

44.36%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.11%

12.89%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.71%

39.29%

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.03%

14.96%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.61%

43.39%

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 42.5%

Sporting Lisbon 36.7%

Draw 20.8%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
2-1 @ 7.69% 3-1 @ 5.25% 3-2 @ 4.99% 2-0 @ 4.05% 1-0 @ 3.95% 3-0 @ 2.77% 4-1 @ 2.69% 4-2 @ 2.56% 4-3 @ 1.62% 4-0 @ 1.42% 5-1 @ 1.1% 5-2 @ 1.05% Other @ 3.38% Total : 42.5%	1-1 @ 7.51% 2-2 @ 7.3% 3-3 @ 3.16% 0-0 @ 1.93% Other @ 0.9% Total : 20.8%	1-2 @ 7.13% 2-3 @ 4.62% 1-3 @ 4.51% 0-1 @ 3.66% 0-2 @ 3.48% 0-3 @ 2.2% 2-4 @ 2.2% 1-4 @ 2.14% 3-4 @ 1.5% 0-4 @ 1.05% Other @ 4.21% Total : 36.7%