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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 78.51%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 7.53%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.92%) and 1-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.62%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (2.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
78.51% | 13.96% | 7.53% |
Both teams to score 46.27% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.21% | 35.8% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.12% | 57.88% |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.69% | 7.31% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
73.57% | 26.43% |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
49.92% | 50.08% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.29% | 84.71% |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
2-0 @ 12.52% 3-0 @ 10.92% 1-0 @ 9.58% 2-1 @ 8.66% 3-1 @ 7.56% 4-0 @ 7.15% 4-1 @ 4.94% 5-0 @ 3.74% 3-2 @ 2.61% 5-1 @ 2.59% 4-2 @ 1.71% 6-0 @ 1.63% 6-1 @ 1.13% Other @ 3.76% Total : 78.5% | 1-1 @ 6.62% 0-0 @ 3.66% 2-2 @ 3% Other @ 0.68% Total : 13.96% | 0-1 @ 2.53% 1-2 @ 2.29% Other @ 2.71% Total : 7.53% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 31 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 103 | 17 | 86 | 84 |
2 | Feyenoord | 31 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 80 | 24 | 56 | 75 |
3 | FC Twente | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 31 | 28 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 35 | 27 | 58 |
5 | Ajax | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 65 | 58 | 7 | 49 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 59 | 47 | 12 | 47 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 46 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 31 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 32 |
15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 66 | -20 | 26 |
16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 31 | 52 | -21 | 25 |
17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 30 | 75 | -45 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 70 | -45 | 2 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |