Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 72.14%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for NEC had a probability of 11.12%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.87%), while for a NEC win it was 0-1 (3.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.