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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 72.14%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for NEC had a probability of 11.12%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.87%), while for a NEC win it was 0-1 (3.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | NEC |
| 72.14% | 16.74% | 11.12% |
| Both teams to score 51.35% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.7% | 37.3% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.49% | 59.51% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.94% | 9.05% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.2% | 30.8% |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.47% | 43.53% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.26% | 79.74% |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | NEC |
| 2-0 @ 11.37% 1-0 @ 9.47% 2-1 @ 9.46% 3-0 @ 9.11% 3-1 @ 7.57% 4-0 @ 5.47% 4-1 @ 4.55% 3-2 @ 3.15% 5-0 @ 2.63% 5-1 @ 2.19% 4-2 @ 1.89% 6-0 @ 1.05% 5-2 @ 0.91% Other @ 3.34% Total : 72.14% | 1-1 @ 7.87% 0-0 @ 3.94% 2-2 @ 3.93% Other @ 0.99% Total : 16.74% | 0-1 @ 3.28% 1-2 @ 3.27% 0-2 @ 1.36% 2-3 @ 1.09% 1-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.21% Total : 11.12% |