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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 56.92%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 21.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.14%) and 0-2 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.14%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 2-1 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 21.24% | 21.84% | 56.92% |
| Both teams to score 57.52% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.04% | 40.96% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.65% | 63.35% |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.05% | 32.95% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.47% | 69.53% |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.79% | 14.21% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.06% | 41.93% |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 5.63% 1-0 @ 5.2% 2-0 @ 2.89% 3-1 @ 2.08% 3-2 @ 2.03% 3-0 @ 1.07% Other @ 2.35% Total : 21.24% | 1-1 @ 10.14% 2-2 @ 5.49% 0-0 @ 4.68% 3-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 0.2% Total : 21.83% | 1-2 @ 9.9% 0-1 @ 9.14% 0-2 @ 8.91% 1-3 @ 6.44% 0-3 @ 5.8% 2-3 @ 3.57% 1-4 @ 3.14% 0-4 @ 2.83% 2-4 @ 1.74% 1-5 @ 1.23% 0-5 @ 1.1% Other @ 3.13% Total : 56.92% |