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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 40.58%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (7.02%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-0 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitesse | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 33.25% | 26.17% | 40.58% |
| Both teams to score 53.17% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.69% | 51.31% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.86% | 73.14% |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.83% | 29.17% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.89% | 65.11% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.07% | 24.93% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.44% | 59.56% |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitesse | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 8.96% 2-1 @ 7.67% 2-0 @ 5.52% 3-1 @ 3.15% 3-0 @ 2.27% 3-2 @ 2.19% 4-1 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.53% Total : 33.25% | 1-1 @ 12.44% 0-0 @ 7.27% 2-2 @ 5.33% 3-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.17% | 0-1 @ 10.1% 1-2 @ 8.64% 0-2 @ 7.02% 1-3 @ 4% 0-3 @ 3.25% 2-3 @ 2.47% 1-4 @ 1.39% 0-4 @ 1.13% Other @ 2.58% Total : 40.57% |