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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.81%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 20.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.17%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 0-1 (6.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
55.81% ( -0.14) | 23.5% ( 0.01) | 20.68% ( 0.13) |
Both teams to score 51.2% ( 0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.05% ( 0.14) | 48.95% ( -0.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.96% ( 0.13) | 71.04% ( -0.13) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.63% ( 0) | 17.37% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.22% ( 0) | 47.77% ( -0) |
Fleetwood Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.95% ( 0.22) | 38.04% ( -0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.19% ( 0.21) | 74.81% ( -0.21) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
1-0 @ 11.56% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.71% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.76% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.5% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 55.8% | 1-1 @ 11.17% 0-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.99% Total : 23.5% | 0-1 @ 6.39% 1-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.55% Total : 20.68% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
2 | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
21 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |