Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 44.67%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 27.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 0-1 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Akhmat Grozny would win this match.