Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 59.71%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 17.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.22%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 0-1 (5.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.