Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rubin Kazan win with a probability of 43.03%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 29.9% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rubin Kazan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (9.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rubin Kazan would win this match.