Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 41.32%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 33.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (6.68%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.