Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 37.9%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 37.5% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-0 (5.75%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 1-2 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.