Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ural Yekaterinburg win with a probability of 41.05%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (9.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.