Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.