Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 53.6%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 23.38% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.