Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Moscow win with a probability of 49.95%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 25.18% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.