Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 46.33%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 26.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.97%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (9.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for FC Krasnodar in this match.