Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 0-1 (9.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fakel in this match.