Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 38.97%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Fakel win was 1-0 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.

Result
Fakel	Draw	Akhmat Grozny
34.59% ( 0.25)	26.44% ( 0)	38.97% ( -0.26)

Both teams to score 52.59% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.81% (

0.02)

52.19% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.1% (

0.01)

73.9% (

-0.02)

Fakel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.25% (

0.16)

28.75% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.41% (

0.21)

64.59% (

-0.21)

Akhmat Grozny Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.8% (

-0.13)

26.19% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.72% (

-0.18)

61.28% (

0.17)

Score Analysis

Fakel 34.59%

Akhmat Grozny 38.96%

Draw 26.43%

Fakel	Draw	Akhmat Grozny
1-0 @ 9.39% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.84% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 5.85% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 3.26% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.63% Total : 34.59%	1-1 @ 12.57% 0-0 @ 7.53% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.25% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.43%	0-1 @ 10.08% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 8.42% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 6.76% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 3.76% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.3% Total : 38.96%