Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 38.77%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 (10.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.