Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 82.58%. A draw had a probability of 11.2% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 6.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 4-0 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.14%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 1-2 (1.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.