Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 64.2%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 16.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for a FC Krasnodar win it was 2-1 (4.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.