Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 60.25%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Torpedo Moskva had a probability of 16.74%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.89%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Torpedo Moskva win it was 0-1 (6.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Akhmat Grozny in this match.