Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 46.16%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Orenburg would win this match.