Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 53.21%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 20.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.32%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (8.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Krylia Sovetov would win this match.