Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 59.52%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 18.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a Krylia Sovetov win it was 0-1 (5.54%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.