Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 47.75%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 27.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.35%) and 0-2 (8.44%). The likeliest Fakel win was 1-0 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.

Result
Fakel	Draw	Spartak Moscow
27.02% ( 0.26)	25.23% ( 0.02)	47.75% ( -0.28)

Both teams to score 52.89% (

0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.83% (

0.09)

50.17% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.87% (

0.08)

72.13% (

-0.08)

Fakel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.97% (

0.25)

33.02% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.39% (

0.28)

69.61% (

-0.28)

Spartak Moscow Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.97% (

-0.08)

21.03% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.18% (

-0.13)

53.82% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Fakel 27.02%

Spartak Moscow 47.74%

Draw 25.23%

Fakel	Draw	Spartak Moscow
1-0 @ 7.69% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 4.26% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.47% Total : 27.02%	1-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.95% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.23%	0-1 @ 10.82% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 9.35% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 8.44% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 4.86% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.9% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.53% Total : 47.74%