Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 39.45%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 34.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.