Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 41.36%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 32.62% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.75%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.