Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 44.45%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 28.9% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.89%) and 0-2 (8.23%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 (8.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.