Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 77.04%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 8.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.11%) and 2-1 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.76%), while for a Fakel win it was 1-2 (2.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.