Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 58.31%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 20.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.52%) and 0-2 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.11%), while for a Lokomotiv Moscow win it was 2-1 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Spartak Moscow in this match.