Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Dynamo Moscow had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.39%) and 2-0 (5.95%). The likeliest Dynamo Moscow win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.