Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 49.35%. A win for Dynamo Moscow had a probability of 26.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Dynamo Moscow win was 0-1 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.