Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 45.28%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.