Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 42.03%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (10.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.