Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 47.6%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 27.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 0-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rostov would win this match.