Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 81.8%. A draw had a probability of 12.5% and a win for Torpedo Moskva had a probability of 5.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.26%) and 1-0 (10.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.93%), while for a Torpedo Moskva win it was 0-1 (2.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.