Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 51.8%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 24.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (8.77%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 0-1 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Akhmat Grozny would win this match.